Can Black Friday Predict how the Stock Market will Trend through the Year?

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Cyber Monday vs. Black Friday: Who wins “Highest Spending Day?” for 2012?

Rachel Fox - November 26, 2012
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The race is on. Both Cyber Monday and Black Friday plan to duke it out this year to see which holiday shopping season kick-off day can rake in most sales.

You may think that there is no competition between the two shopping days, but there absolutely is. While the Cyber Monday ads haven’t officially been released yet, the handfuls of people who’ve seen them are saying they “rival” against Black Friday ads.

Now that you know there’s a competition, let’s meet the players.

Cyber Monday

Q: What is Cyber Monday?

A: Cyber Monday takes place on the Monday after Black Friday (Friday after Thanksgiving).

Black Friday is the busiest shopping day of the year. Cyber Monday is the biggest online shopping day of the year. In 2011, Cyber Monday sales raked in over $1.25 billion in sales. That amount has grown from ever year previous.

While Cyber Monday still is the underdog in this competition and less talked about than Black Friday, the numbers pointing towards a potential win for it this year look very good.

Black Friday

Q: What is Black Friday?

A: Black Friday takes place on the Friday after Thanksgiving and is marked as the official kick-off day to the holiday shopping season.

Based on this, Marketers have used it as a day to hold major sales and give buyers great discounts on items they buy in stores that day.

Some say Black Friday got it’s name because on this day, stores made so much money, due to excellent price deals, that it became the first day of the year companies stopped losing money, and started making money. Pushing them from being in the red (loosing money) to being in the black (making money.)

To read more on the origin of Black Friday’s name and other details on the shopping holiday, click HERE

What the Stats are Saying:

If you’re just not sure who you think will take this year’s “Highest Spending Day of the Year” title, take a look at these stats:

  • conducted a survey that shows more people plan to spend more money online shopping on Cyber Monday, than in stores over the whole entire holiday shopping season.
  • The survey also shows that 42% of people are planning on scoping out the deals in person on Black Friday but actually making their purchases online on Cyber Monday.
  • A majority of people would much rather make the purchases from the comfort of their own home instead of having to camp outside stores in the cold while waiting for the doors to open.

It could definitely go either way. The stats do look good for the underdog Cyber Monday but in the past years Black Friday has stood to be the highest spending day.

My final question is:

What does this mean for Stock Traders?

The stock market had a great day on Friday (Dow up 172.79 points) due to Black Friday sales exceeding everyone’s expectations. While analysts and company owners were saying that it was unlikely this year’s sales numbers would beat last years, they were VERY wrong. Black Friday 2012 sales turned in a 21% higher profit than Black Friday 2011 sales.


If the surveys on Cyber Monday prove correct, then I can only image the amount of sales that will be made on Monday. People will be buzzing about Cyber Monday and it will probably make Monday another nice up day for the stock market.

As a trader, I’d be happy if both days exceed expectations and cause nice up trends in the market on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

In this increasingly cyber world, I’m excited to see what the market does on Monday and Tuesday as a reaction to the sales from Cyber Monday. I see going long as the position to take for the next couple days.

Here’s to lots of good holiday shopping and lots of good up days in the stock market.

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