How The Oscars Affect Movie Studio Stock Prices

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How The Oscars Affect Movie Studio Stock Prices

The Oscars were so much fun to watch this year! Meryl Streep was as captivating as usual, Jack Nicholson was funny and quirky, Ben Affleck was strong and funny and excited, and Jennifer Lawrence was stunning and graceful (except on the stairs!).

I felt a little guilty watching the Oscars as my blog page for Fox on Stocks sat empty, but then I started jotting out this blog about how winning the Oscar could impact a movie studio’s stock price. I’d already delved into the subject a couple of weeks ago when I wrote the blog, “Movie Studio Stocks: How Film Releases Affect Stock Prices”.

How Oscars Affect Stock Price

Today’s blog is similar, but I found some very cool stats about the actual financial impact of winning an Oscar on the film’s bottom line. The full report can be found in The Value of an Oscar post over at boxofficequant.com.

Rachel Fox Oscars Affect Stock Prices Fox on Stocks

The report also concludes that the Oscar win bumps up revenue, whereas an Oscar nomination alone generally does not.

Films that won Academy Awards last night and their ticker symbols:

CategoryFilmSymbol
Best PictureArgoTime Warner $TWX
Best DirectorLife of PiNews Corp. $NWS
Best ActorLincolnDisney $DIS / Universal $CMCSA
Best ActressSilver Linings PlaybookWeinstein Co. (Privately Held)
Supporting ActorDjango UnchainedWeinstein Co. (Privately Held)
Supporting ActressLes MiserableUniversal $CMCSA
Original ScreenplayDjango UnchainedWeinstein Co. (Privately Held)
Adapted ScreenplayArgoTime Warner $TWX
Best EditingArgoTime Warner $TWX
Original ScoreLife of PiNews Corp. $NWS
Original SongSkyfallSony $SNE
SoundLes MiserableUniversal $CMCSA
Sound EditingZero Dark ThirtySony $SNE
Sound EditingSkyfallSony $SNE

 
That said, though, remember a couple of things:

  • First, just because a movie wins the award and the movie studio company benefits with increased revenue, it does not necessarily mean its stock price will go up. Remember Fox Tip # 001, the stock market is illogical.
  • Second, these are not stock tips, nor do I currently own a position in any of these stocks. Use your own judgment and focus on your style of investing, whether it’s long-term investing, intermediate-term investing or trading, or short-term trading. You might even sell one of these short based on expectations for an Oscar win that were not met, but again, use your own judgment.
  • Third, it may be interesting to simply study the impact over several years to see if there is a direct correlation between Oscar winner and stock price one day, two days, and five days after the Oscars. So much research to do, so little time.

Enjoy checking out these movie stocks this week and catch up on any movies on the list you haven’t seen yet. I know I’ll be doing just that. See you at the movies :)

Many Happy Returns,
Rachel

  • beatstockpromotersdotcom

    Interesting article although day traders could really care less about this stuff. This more fundamentally based information which certainly moves stock in the longer term but as a day trader all I care about is the short term because tomorrows a new day.

  • http://igaming-jobs.com iGaming Jobs

    Very interesting topic! You said that the report concludes that the Oscar win bumps up revenue, whereas an Oscar nomination alone generally does not. I wonder if an Oscar nomination and not winning it moves the stock price down?

    Other than that, great blog! Would be cool if you could update your readers on your daily traders, if you go long or short and which stocks etc. I suggest shorting S&P 500 – think it will drop till around 1410. Soon we’ll see If I am right.

  • http://www.newfination.com Donald McIntyre

    Good analysis. My question now is how the internet has deteriorated media company revenues. I saw a D: AllThingsD video where Beats’ CEO said that in music revenues came down from 40 billion in 2002 to 19 billion in 2012. This is due to piracy and music sharing.

    How did new-media and the internet affect movie studios?

    If they came down a lot my guess is that content produced by Hollywood will gain value from now on.

    As an indication of how content now is being appreciated Linkedin introduced a section in their network called “Influencer Posts” written by famous people in different aspects of business and leadership.

    I think that in internet 3.o content will be king again.